The Baltic Region in Poland’s security policy: strategic assessments and response

Abstract

For the first time in Russian academic discourse, the article examines strategic assessments of the Baltic region’s role in Poland’s contemporary security policy, drawing on institutional and situational analysis as well as elements of scenario modelling. These assessments serve as the basis for military and diplomatic initiatives and adjustments to strategic planning in the deve­lopment and modernisation of the armed forces. Building on strategic foreign and se­curity policy documents, a corpus of legislative acts, and statements by Poland’s political and military leadership, the author reconstructs the hierarchy of priorities underpinning Poland’s contemporary security policy. The findings reveal a marked increase in the significance of the Baltic region within Poland’s security policy since the escalation of the international political crisis in 2022. This trend is reflected in the systematic adaptation of state institutions to the prospect of conducting autonomous operations in the Baltic region. Consistent efforts have been undertaken to strengthen national defence capabilities, with particular emphasis on the de­velopment of a regional Baltic security architecture. The study contributes to a deeper under­standing of subregional security dynamics in the Baltic Sea region and has practical relevance for foreign and security policy planning institutions in the Russian Federation.