This article revisits approaches to regional development by exploring both previously proposed and new policy opportunities for regions facing the greatest challenges in adapting to emerging geo-economic conditions. This revision is based on the methodology of comparative analysis of discrete structural (institutional) alternatives – an essential component for ensuring the necessary evidential level in selecting economic policy instruments, complementing other applied research tools. The Kaliningrad region is one of Russia’s most complex due to its geographical isolation and historical background. The most comprehensive and consistent review of development options, or structural alternatives, for this area is found in the works of Gennady Fedorov, a professor at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. This study elucidates the need to draw on the ideas of regional and spatial economic development of the Kaliningrad region reflected in the works of Prof. Fedorov and his colleagues from 1991 to 2023, when developing scenarios for Russia’s westernmost region. The main advantage of their findings is that they are presented through the lens of interdisciplinary discourse, utilising concepts from new institutional economic theory to provide an economic perspective. This study reveals the fundamental ideas behind the concept of the geo-demographic situation, the so-called ‘Fedorov matrix’ highlighting structural alternatives for the development of the Kaliningrad region and the spatially distributed clusters. The article examines the three main development strategies of the Kaliningrad region, as analysed by Fedorov, to trace the evolution of the region’s economic activity regulation regime. A conclusion is drawn regarding the demand for industrial policy instruments for the development of the region’s economy, while also emphasising their insufficient efficiency in application. The viability of Fedorov’s forecasts, as outlined in his works, is assessed through the example of planning a spatially distributed tourism and recreation cluster.

Economic security in border regions emerged as a new area of inquiry in human geography, under the supervision of Prof Fedorov and with the active involvement of researchers from Kaliningrad, Rostov-on-Don, Saint Petersburg, Smolensk, and Simferopol, within the framework of the Russian Science Foundation project № 18-17-00112, titled Ensuring the Economic Security of the Regions of Russia’s Western Borderlands under Conditions of Geopolitical Turbulence. This study is the first attempt at a comprehensive examination of economic security, considering a multitude of contributing factors: economic, social, domestic and foreign policy-related, ethnic and environmental. The socio-geographical approach to economic security provides insight into its spatial conditionality, informing our studies on regional and sectoral economics.

This article examines the Kaliningrad region’s economic development from the perspective of its exclave position, border functions and potential for ensuring Russia’s national interests. The assessment of the economic security of the region from 2000 to 2019, cited in earlier works, reveals a lack of resilience to external challenges and threats. In this article, we examine these results in the context of economic development quality and determinants, applying structural and resource-oriented approaches. It is demonstrated that, until 2022, the economic development of the Russian exclave did not fully align with national interests due to a prioritisation of international ties, often at the expense of interregional ones. Additionally, the region’s openness was increasing, with insufficient attention given to ensuring its sustainability under external constraints. Seeking to address existing shortcomings, this article presents and substantiates proposed modifications that give due consideration to economic security. Specifically, it emphasises functional and structural transformations within the regional management system.

Professor Gennady Fedorov, Doctor of Geography and a distinguished Soviet and Russian researcher, made a significant contribution to the study of economic development in the Baltic states, particularly in their economic relations with Russia. His work consistently underscored the importance of trade with Russia for the Baltic economies and its impact on regional production of goods and services. Recent geopolitical shifts have triggered profound structural changes in international trade. This article examines the trade in goods within the Baltic states, as well as between these states and third countries, including Russia. It evaluates the long- and short-term structural shifts in commodity flows, utilizing a comparative analysis of export and import trends based on the latest international statistics. The study covers the period from 2004 to 2024, drawing on annual statistics from 2004—2023 and more granular quarterly and monthly data for 2021—2024, sourced from UN/UNCTAD, Eurostat, WTO, and the World Bank. Employing methods of statistical and structural analysis and Trade Intensity Index (TII) calculations, the article investigates two hypotheses. The first hypothesis, proposing a general increase in the TII between the Baltic states from 2004 to 2023, is partially supported; Lithuania’s exports deviate from the overall trend due to the country’s strong trade links with Poland and Germany. The second hypothesis, asserting the adaptability of Baltic business to geo-economic and geopolitical stresses — including sustained trade with Russia—has been fully confirmed. The article identifies commodity groups where export and import flows between the Baltic states and Russia increased between 2021 and 2023, highlighting potential niches for Russia to maintain or expand its presence.

Excessive differentiation and polarisation in rural development lead to spatial compression, fragmentation, and social desertification, increasingly evident across many regions. This study aims to identify the trends, features and patterns of rural population differentiation in Russia’s North-West at interregional and intraregional levels. Methodologically, it adopted an approach that views rural space differentiation as a product of the combined influence of the agro-industrial complex system and the ‘urban–rural’ system. The changes of interest were studied from the industrial, demographic and settlement perspectives, with a focus on indicators such as changes in acreage and livestock between 1989, 2007 and 2023, and the size of the rural population and the number of residents per rural settlement between 2002, 2010 and 2020. The trends are investigated at the levels of regions — Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov — and their municipalities. Hypotheses regarding the impact of the rental mechanism and core-periphery relations on the development differentiation of district territories were tested and largely confirmed. In the study regions, areas with varying rates of increase and decrease in acreage and livestock, including zones of compression and fragmentation, were identified, along with areas where the rural population grew or declined. Spatial differentiation in terms of resident per settlement ratio is shown to largely coincide with areas experiencing the most dynamic rural population change. The study concludes that, under the baseline scenario, the development of rural spaces in the Novgorod and Pskov regions will likely intensify their polarisation with the Leningrad region and lead to socio-demographic desertification of non-urbanised areas. The findings highlight the need for significant organisational and economic measures, engaging both public and private investments from outside these regions.

The rural settlement system of the Kaliningrad region, comprising 1,075 localities, is characterised by compactness, high economic development and a predominance of small rural settlements. From 2010 to 2024, the region’s rural population increased from 210 to 235 thousand people. Simultaneously, the number of large rural settlements is growing in the western part of the region, while a stable trend of demographic decline persists among small rural settlements in the eastern part. Using statistical data, along with quantitative data from previous studies, open sources and field research materials, the authors developed a comprehensive typology of Kaliningrad region’s rural settlements. The typology classifies settlements according to demographic factors, spatial location, availability of social infrastructure, tourism and recreation facilities and agricultural enterprises of various types. The research methods encompassed tools for gathering, processing and analysing primary data, including statistical, cartographic and comparative-geographical techniques. As a result, 18 types of rural settlements were identified in the Kaliningrad region, each characterised by a unique trajectory of socio-economic and demographic development. These distinctions should be considered when designing and implementing spatial development programmes and projects at local or regional levels. The research results are presented in cartographic and tabular formats.

Agricultural holdings are often cited as the main beneficiaries, on the one hand, of organisational and structural changes in Russian agriculture during the post-Soviet period, and on the other, of the transformation of state policy in response to contemporary geopolitical challenges. This paper examines the adaptation of the territorial and sectoral structure of agriculture in a socioeconomically peripheral region in response to the expansion of agricultural holdings. This study draws on official statistical data, the SPARK database, resources from the VetIS Federal State Information System, the Unified Federal Information System on Agricultural Land, and the authors’ extensive field research. The study demonstrated that the operations of agricultural holdings can completely transform the agricultural profile of a non-Chernozem region with a declining population in terms of specialisation and organisational structure, leading to economic recovery in agriculture. The example of the Pskov region illustrates how the expansion of agroholding assets is swiftly extending into peripheral areas with abundant land and low rural population density. The interviews confirmed that livestock agricultural holdings, primarily those specialising in pork production, benefit from the social desertification of rural areas. This is accompanied by a further weakening of rural community economies, as livestock and poultry have completely disappeared from private and subsistence farms. The new pork production specialisation in the Pskov region has, as expected, led to other changes in agriculture, including an increase in grain farming. While production volumes have risen, new territorial centres have not emerged.

The demise of the USSR and the revision of the Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations led to tectonic changes in the Baltic Sea region: it became apparent that the northern flank, once the most likely battleground between the North Atlantic Alliance and the Warsaw Pact, had a historical opportunity to transform into a region of intensive political, economic, educational and cultural interaction. Under these circumstances, the construction of a new regional system of international relations unfolded at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries. This article examines the evolution of the regional model of international relations, from a ‘cohesion region’ to a modern ‘conflict region’, through the analysis of the dynamics of regional cooperation networks amidst the crisis in the international system and politics. The study builds on the tradition of historical and political analysis of regions as agents in the international relations system, drawing on relevant documents and materials from international organisations, foreign ministries and other authorities of the Baltic Sea region states. The final part of the research emphasises the need for experts to search for a post-conflict regional agenda, with some proposals outlined.

A significant contribution to the study of migration in the exclave region of Kaliningrad, including an analysis of determining factors, was made by Dr. hab. Prof Gennady Fedorov, who conceptualised migration movements as a demographic element within the geo-demographic context. He was the first to highlight the distinctive nature of migration processes in the region, shaped by its historical background and unique economic-geographical position. This article examines how the exclave position, including spatial remoteness from the parent state, affects migration patterns. To this end, migration is examined in thirteen coastal exclaves worldwide, excluding military bases and uninhabited territories. Situated in diverse regions worldwide, these areas are characterised by varying climatic, economic, and institutional conditions, as well as distinct historical and cultural features in societal development, each overcoming the challenges of spatial isolation in a unique way. These differences are reflected in the attractiveness of the exclaves to migrants and, consequently, in the current migration situation. This study is the first attempt to produce a typology of exclaves by examining local migration situations. To this end, exclaves are compared using indicators of population migration, its role in population replacement, transport connectivity with the parent and neighbouring states and the natural and socio-economic conditions of regional development from 2017 to 2022. The comparison produces a typology of coastal exclaves based on the characteristics of migration processes. Exclaves that lack attractiveness to migrants include those developing under harsh climatic conditions such as Alaska; those experiencing extreme temperatures and possessing underdeveloped economies like Oecussi-Ambeno, Temburong and French Guiana; and densely populated exclaves facing a massive refugee influx, such as Ceuta and Melilla. Attractive exclaves are economically prosperous regions that take advantage of their coastal location, such as the Kaliningrad region and Crimea, and specialise in oil and gas production, for example, Cabinda and Musandam. The third type comprises the most densely populated exclave of Gibraltar, along with the highly developed regions of Dubrovnik and Northern Ireland, where migration has minimal impact on population replacement.