Current Geodemographic Problems in the European Union and Migration Crisis of the 2010s
Abstract
This article demonstrates the effect of the 2010s migration crisis has had on the demographic development of the European Union. Employing statistics and mapping, the study argues that the demographic development of EU states is not affected by either socioeconomic performance or religious, linguistic, and cultural characteristics. Migration inflow differs significantly by country and EU region. The authors analyse major irregular migration routes and show that their use cannot be always explained by using traditional demographic approaches. There is also a difference in the proportion of migrants by country, although settlement systems are very similar. Even with decades spent in the destination country, the Muslim population remains poorly integrated into the local community and its effect on the latter is insignificant (Turks in Germany). The demographic mosaic of the European Union is becoming increasingly fragmented, which makes any national level demographic forecasts inconsequential. However, community-level forecasts are possible and necessary. All this creates a need for geodemographic research.
1. Balabeykina, O., Martynov, V.2015, Lutheranism in Finland: past and present, Balt. Reg., no. 4 (26), p. 113—121. DOI: 10.5922/2079—8555—2015—4—9.
2. Bolshova, N. 2013, Germany: Turkish origin migrants are almost not involved in the political life of the country, MGIMO University, available at: http://old. mgimo. ru/news/experts/document240923.phtml (accessed 05.04.2016). (In Russ.)
3. Weinstein, G. 2012, Future policy of multiculturalism in Europe, Rossiya i musul'manskii mir [Russia and the Muslim world], no. 1(235), p. 127—144. (In Russ.)
4. Vishnevski, А. G. 2015, After the Demographic Transition: Divergence, Convergence or Diversity? Obshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost' [Social Sciences and Modernity], no. 2, p. 112—129. (In Russ.)
5. Voinikov, V. 2015, Legal aspects of the EU policy on irregular immigration, Balt. Reg., no. 4, p. 55—65. DOI: 10/5922/2079—8555—2015—4—4.
6. Greenberg, R. S. 2012, The crisis of European integration: the award before sunset? Mir peremen [World change], no. 4, available at: http://mirperemen.net/ 2012/10/krizis-evropejskoj-integracii-nagrada-pered-zakatom/ (accessed 05.05.2016). (In Russ.)
7. Degusarova, V. S., Martynov, V. L., Sazonova, I. E. 2016, Geo-demographic situation in the Czech Republic and Slovakia at the end of XX — beginning of XXI century, Izvestiya Russkogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva [Regional Research of Russia], no. 2, p. 83—94. (In Russ.)
8. Degusarova, V. S., Martynov, V. L., Sazonova, I. E. 2015, Demographic development in Poland during the years of its membership in the European Union, Izvestiya Russkogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva [Regional Research of Russia], Vol. 147, no. 1, p. 77—86. (In Russ.)
9. Yelmanova, D. S. 2015, The latest trends in the ethnic structure of the population of the Brussels-Capital Region, Mozaika gorodskikh prostranstv: ekonomicheskie, sotsial'nye, kul'turnye i ekologicheskie protsessy [Mosaic urban spaces: economic, social, cultural and ecological processes], Collected materials of All-Russian scientific conference, Moscow, MSU, 27—29 November 2015, p. 79 -84. (In Russ.)
10. Zhitin, D., Krasnov, A., Shendrik, A.2016, Migration Flows in Europe: Space and Time Transformation, Balt. Reg., Vol. 8, no. 2, p. 101—124. DOI: 10.5922/2079—8555—2016—2—6.
11. Every fifth inhabitant of the European Union in 2050 will be a Muslim, 2009, Vesti. Ru, available at: http://www. vesti. ru/doc. html?id=308452 (accessed 08.04.2016). (In Russ.)
12. Klupt, M. А. 2011, Immigrant minorities of Western countries: geo-demographic dynamics in the 2000s, Izvestiya Russkogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva [Regional Research of Russia], Vol. 143, no. 6, p. 22—29. (In Russ.)
13. Klupt, M. А. 2014, Paradigms and modern demography opposition, Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review], Vol. 1, no. 1, p. 34—56. (In Russ.)
14. Klupt, M. А. 2013, Changes in the geographical structure of world production and international migration, Izvestiya Russkogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva [Regional Research of Russia], Vol. 145, no. 5, p. 1—9. (In Russ.)
15. Klupt, M. А. 2015, The center-periphery relations in Europe: demographic aspect, Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [World Economy and International Relations], no. 2, p. 58—67. (In Russ.)
16. Fedorov, G. М. 2015, A complex multi-level typology of European countries, Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskaya geografiya. Vestnik Assotsiatsii rossiiskikh geografov-obshchestvovedov [Socio-economic geography. Bulletin of Russian geographers, social scientists Association], no. 1 (4), p. 67. (In Russ.)
17. Fedorov, G. 2014, Current Issues in the Geodemographic Studies in Russia, Balt. Reg., no. 2, p. 4—21. DOI: 10.5922/2079—8555—2014—2—1.
18. International Religious Freedom Report for 2014. France, 2014, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, available at: http://www. state. gov/j/drl/rls/irf/religiousfreedom/index. htm#wrapper (accessed 17.05.2016).
19. International Religious Freedom Report for 2014. United Kingdom, 2014, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, available at: http://www. state. gov/j/drl/rls/irf/religiousfreedom/index. htm#wrapper (accessed 17.05.2016).
20. Cendrowicz, L. 2015, Paris attacks: Visiting Molenbeek, the police no-go zone that was home to two of the gunmen, Independent, 15 Nov.
21. Demography Report, 2015, Luxembourg, Publication Office of European Union.
22. Kern, S. 2015, European 'No-Go' Zones: Fact or Fiction? Part 1: France, Gatestone Institute, available at: http://www. gatestoneinstitute. org/5128/france-no-go-zones (accessed 17.05. 2016).
23. Key figures on Europe: 2015 edition, 2015, Luxembourg, Publications Office of the European Union, 20 p.
24. Migratory routes map, available at: http://frontex. europa. eu/trends-and-routes/migratory-routes-map (accessed 04.11.2016).
25. Population on 1 January, Eurostat, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00001&plugin=1 (accessed 15. 04. 2016).
26. Statistisches Jahrbuch 2015, 2016, Wiesbaden: Statistisches Bundesamt, 34 p.
27. Węgry o 900 miejscach w Europie poza kontrolą państw. Imigranci przejmują miasta? 2016, Wprost, 01 April 2016, available at: http://www. wprost. pl/ar/535039/Wegry-o-900-miejscach-w-Europie-poza-kontrola-panstw-Imigranci-przejmuja-miasta/ (accessed 17.05.2016).