DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ACROSS THE REGIONS OF FINLAND, 2019—2024

Abstract

Demographic and socioeconomic developments in Finland are of continuing importance to neighbouring Russia. Finland is in the final stage of the demographic transition, characterised by natural population decline, which is offset to varying degrees by net immigration. Regional differences in rates of natural population change and the direction of internal migration flows contribute to population redistribution within the country. This study aims to identify spatial patterns of demographic change across Finland’s regions during 2019—2024, with parti­cular emphasis on the eastern regions, and to examine the factors underlying these changes. This relatively short period witnessed several major events and geopolitical developments that directly affected the country’s demographic trends: the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp increase in immigration from 2022 onwards, and the closure of the Russian–Finnish border (2022—2023). To assess these changes, the study examines trends in key indicators of natural population change and migration at the regional and municipal levels, alongside shifts in the geographical patterns of internal and international migration. Particular attention is paid to five regions in eastern Finland that, until recently, maintained extensive economic, cultural and people-to-people ties with Russia. Despite positive net international migration, whose geographical patterns have changed substantially in recent years, demographic conditions in the eastern regions examined remain unfavourable, particularly in comparison with those in the urbanised areas of southern and southwestern Finland.