Labour Potential of Russia’s Non-Capital Regions under Spatial Polarisation

Abstract

Widening spatial disparities in Russia and the persistent gap between capital regions and the largest non-capital regions have made preserving the latter’s human capital a priority for spatial development. This study aims to assess differences in labour potential among Russian regions whose administrative centres have populations exceeding one million. The methodology involves calculating a set of relative indices to compare regional indicators with those for the Moscow metropolitan region and Russia as a whole, in both absolute and normalised terms. The analysis covers 2010—2023 and examines population size, the total wage fund, gross regional product, the number of researchers and university students, and rates of natural increase and net migration. The results reveal widening spatial disparities: all the regions examined have become less competitive relative to the Moscow metropolitan region. Nevertheless, some retain a degree of competitiveness through three mechanisms: integration into smart specialisation networks, the use of natural resource rents, and the capitalisation of environmental amenities that shape their attractiveness to migrants. The research and higher education component of labour potential is the most resistant to decline. A common structural constraint is the combination of heavy workloads and relatively low wages, which reinforces the process of cumulative causation.