NONE20260616165942935Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal Universityno-reply@balticregion.kantiana.ruImmanuel Kant Baltic Federal UniversityBaltic Region2079-85552310-052406162026154От редактораV. KuznetsovaOlga061620264510.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-0https://balticregion.kantiana.ru/baltic_region/5449/45418/Геополитическая обусловленность воздействия «фактора моря» на пространственное развитие постсоветской России: балтийская спецификаA.G.Druzhininhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1642-6335The article explores the impact of geopolitical processes on the spatial organisation of society, a matter that has gained increasing importance in Russia. It focuses on the utilization of the World Ocean and its coastlines for resource extraction, logistics, military-strategic purposes, and settlement. Methodologically, this study combines modern socio-geographical approaches emphasising the role of the maritime factor in spatial development with classical geopolitical ideologemes drawing a line between the land and the sea. It stresses the fundamental possibility for territories, including states, not only to acquire synthetic continental-maritime attributes but also to transform the balance of these attributes under the influence of geopolitical determinants. The article analyses geopolitically induced changes in the maritime activities pursued by Russia in the post-Soviet period. The primary focus is on the situational territorial and economic shifts of 2014 and 2022, and their implications for Russian territories in the Baltic region. Pronounced inter-basin differences are described with respect to the coastalisation of the population. The study also evaluates the economic condition of key Russian maritime centres and their resilience to external influences, especially geopolitical challenges. The article offers a geopolitical justification for Russia’s ongoing maritime endeavours, emphasizing the need for inter-basin, intermunicipal, and interregional integration. This integration should be accompanied by the establishment of coastal-intracontinental facilities, such as hubs, across Russia. It is imperative for the nation and its prominent corporations to actively engage in shaping the framework of emerging expansive international maritime socio-geographical structures, facilitating the shift toward global maritime polycentrism. The solution to these problems is closely linked to the priority goal of strengthening Russia’s geostrategic standing in the Baltic region, particularly with a focus on its maritime components. These developments are anticipated within the context of the Russian Baltic Area, envisioned as a borderland with trans-basin geopolitical, economic-geographical, and geocultural bi-structural asymmetry.0616202662310.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-1https://balticregion.kantiana.ru/baltic_region/5450/45419/Trenin, D. V. 2022, What We Are, Where We Are, What We Stand For—And Why, Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 20, № 3, p. 32—42, https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6439-2022-20-3-32-42 (in Russ.).Karaganov, S. A. 2022, From the Non-West to the World majority, Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 20, № 5, p. 6—18, https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6439-2022-20-5-6-18 (in Russ.).Yevstafiev, D. G. 2023, Step Beyond Global World, Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 21, № 2, p. 8—21, https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6439-2023-21-2-8-21 (in Russ.).Druzhinin, A. G., Kuznetsova, O. 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(in Russ.).Klimanov, V. V., Eremina, D. A., Mikhaylova, A. A. 2018, Analysis of the balance of financial flows between the center and regions in the Russian Federation, ECO, vol. 48, № 9, p. 51—62, https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2018-9-51-62 (in Russ.).Druzhinin, A. G. (ed.). 2017, Cross-border cluster formation in the coastal zones of the European part of Russia: Factors, models, economic and economic effects, Rostov-na-Donu : Izdatel’stvo YUzhnogo federal’nogo universiteta, 421 p. (in Russ.).Zakaria, F. 2008, Post-American world, London : Allen Lane.Shuper, V. A. 2008, Russia in a globalised world: alternatives of progress, Voprosy filosofii, № 12, p. 3—21. EDN: JUGPUT (in Russ.).Volkhin, D. A. 2020, Crimean marine economy in integration and disintegration processes in the Black Sea region, Geopolitics and Ecogeodynamics of regions, vol. 6, № 4, p. 5—21. EDN: UXLLZT (in Russ.).Nikolaev, A. V. 2004, Geography of the Russian state industry, Izvestiya Akademii Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, № 5, p. 42—52 (in Russ.).Pokshishevskij, V. V. 1975, Theoretical aspects of the attraction of settlement to the sea coasts and the experience of quantifying this attraction, Izvestiya Vsesoyuznogo geograficheskogo obshchestva, № 1, p. 29—35 (in Russ.).Druzhinin, A. G. 2017, The coastalisation of population in today’s Russia: a socio-geographical explication, Baltic region, vol. 9, № 2, p. 19—30. doi: https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2017-2-2Saushkin, Yu. G. 2001, Selected works, Smolensk : Universum, 416 p. (in Russ.).Druzhinin, A. G. 2020, The strongholds of Russian coastal borderlands: economic dynamics amid geopolitical turbulence, Baltic region, vol. 12, № 3, p. 89—104, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2020-3-6Zhiharevich, B. S., Klimanov, V. V., Maracha, V. G. 2020, Shock resistance of territorial systems: concept, measurement, management, Regional Research, № 3, p. 4—15. EDN: PJCFKB (in Russ.).Kuznetsova, O. V. 2022, Spatial structure of the economy transforming during and after crises, Region: economics and sociology, № 2 (114), p. 33—57, https://doi.org/10.15372/REG20220202 (in Russ.).Dergachyov, V. A. 1985, Prospects for the formation of port-industrial complexes of the USSR, Izvestiya Vsesoyuznogo geograficheskogo obshchestva, № 6, p. 497—503 (in Russ.).Melnikas, B. 2008, Integration processes in the Baltic region: the new form of regional transformations in the European Union, Engineering economics, vol. 5, № 60, p. 54—64.Pacuk, M., Palmowski, T., Tarkowski, M. 2018, The emergence of Baltic Europe: An overview of Polish research on regional integration, Quaestiones Geographicae, vol. 37, № 2, p. 47— 60, https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2018-0013Fedorov, G. 2010, The Kaliningrad dilemma: a ‘‘development corridor’’ or a ‘‘double periphery’’? The geopolitical factor of the development of the Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, Baltic region, № 2, p. 4—12, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2010-2-1Khudoley, K. K. 2016, The Baltic Sea region and increasing international tension, Baltic region, vol. 8, № 1, p. 4—16, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2016-1-1Zverev, Yu. M., Mezhevich, N. M. 2022, The Republic of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia as a sub-regional security complex, Baltic region, vol. 14, № 3, p. 64—82, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2022-3-4Ekengren, M. 2018, A return to geopolitics? The future of the security community in the Baltic Sea Region, Global Affairs, vol. 4, № 4—5, p. 503—519, https://doi.org/10.1080/23340460.2018.1535250Morachevskaya, K. A., Lialina, A. V. 2023, The impact of the food embargo on consumer preferences and cross-border practices in the Kaliningrad region, Baltic region, vol. 15, № 2, p. 62—81, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2023-2-4Lachininskii, S. S., Xiaoling, L. 2021, Geopolitical risks and prospects of relations between Russia and the West in the Baltic, Pskov Journal of Regional Studies, vol. 17, № 4, p. 3—15, https://doi.org/10.37490/S221979310017062-1 (in Russ.).Swistek, G., Paul, M. 2023, Geopolitics in the Baltic Sea region: The ‘Zeitenwende’ in the context of critical maritime infrastructure, escalation threats and the German willingness to lead, № 9, SWP Comment.Baklanov, P. Y. 2015, Pacific Russia: Geographical and geopolitical factors of development, Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, № 5, p. 8—19, https://doi.org/10.15356/0373-2444-2015-5-8-19 (in Russ.).Druzhinin, A. G. 2020, Russian Black Sea region in modern Eurasia: geopolitical and maritime economic factors of regional dynamics, Nauchnaya mysl’ Kavkaza, № 3 (103), p. 5—15. EDN: FRHEUL (in Russ.).Razumovskij, V. M., Fedorov, G. M., Bezdudnaya, A. G. 2019, The Russian Baltic in the Eurasian space, Problemy sovremennoj ekonomiki, № 3 (71), р. 38—40 (in Russ.).Lachininskii, S. S. 2022, Geoeconomic risks faced by the Russian Baltic region amid a deteriorating geopolitical situation, Baltic region, vol. 14, № 2, p. 23—37, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2022-2-2Fedorov, G. M. 2022, The economy of Russian Baltic regions: development level and dynamics, structure and international trade partners, Baltic region, vol. 14, № 4, p. 20—38, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2022-4-2Три российских региона на Балтике в условиях противостояния России и ЗападаYu. M.Zverevhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5048-7481This study examines the features, limitations and development prospects of three Russian territories bordering the Baltic Sea — St. Petersburg, and the Leningrad, and Kaliningrad region — amid the sharply heightened confrontation between Russia and the West, which has affected the Baltic region. The time frame spanning from 2014 to 2023 was chosen for the study. This period encompasses the sanctions imposed by Western countries and their associations, primarily the EU, in response to the return of Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia, and extends up to the present day, when the relations between Russia and the West, as many experts and politicians have emphasised, have reached a critical point and may require substantial changes in the global order, including at macro-regional levels, for a return to what was once considered ‘bbusiness as usual’. The study examines the development level and dynamics in the three regions, alongside their economic security. Another focus is on foreign policy and a geopolitical typology of the Baltic region states. The article investigates the impact of a changed geopolitical landscape on cross-border cooperation, the restructuring of foreign trade relations in Russia’s three Baltic regions, and the geopolitical and military factors influencing the development and security of these territories. Based on the findings, several suggestions are provided to promote the ongoing growth of Russia’s Baltic regions and enhance their economic and military security.06162026244110.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-2https://balticregion.kantiana.ru/baltic_region/5450/45420/Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M. 1995, Kaliningradskie al’ternativy [Kaliningrad alternatives], Kaliningrad, 158 p. (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M., Korneevets, V. S. 1997, Rossiiskii eksklav na Baltike [Russian exclave in the Baltic], Kaliningrad, 312 p. EDN: XVWGKR (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M., Korneevets, V. S. 2012, Rossiya na Baltike: 1990—2012 gody [Russia on Baltic: 1990—2012], Kaliningrad, 252 p. EDN: SWPSQZ (in Russ.).Palmowski, T. 2013, Trójmiasto — Kaliningrad: bipolarny europol?, Pomorski Przegląd Gospodarczy, 8 października 2013, URL: https://ppg.ibngr.pl/pomorski-przeglad-gospodarczy/trojmiasto-kaliningrad-bipolarny-europol (accessed 06.08.2023).Kivikari, U. 1996, Ekonomicheskoe prostranstvo Baltiiskogo regiona, Khel’sinki, Otava, 160 s.Maciejewski, W. (ed.). 2002, The Baltic Sea Region. Cultures, Politics, Societies, Uppsala, The Baltic University Press, 676 p.Anisiewicz, R., Palmowski, T. 2019, Współpraca Polski z Obwodem Kaliningradzkim Federacji Rosyjskiej jako istotny element integracji Bałtyckiej, Prace i Studia Geograficzne, № 1 (64), p. 13—27.Palmowski, T. 2013, Kaliningrad — szansa czy zagrożenie dla Europy Bałtyckiej? Monografia społeczno-gospodarcza, Wydawnictwo “Bernardinum”, Gdańsk—Pelplin, 352 p.Fedorov, G. M. (ed.). 2020, Zapadnoe porubezh’e Rossii: modelirovanie razvitiya’ i obespechenie ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti [Western borders of Russia: modeling development and ensuring economic security] Kaliningrad, 319 p. EDN: JOANPD (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M. (ed.). 2021, Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’ regionov Zapadnogo porubezh’ya Rossii [Economic security of the regions of the Western border of Russia], Kaliningrad : Izd-vo BFU im. I. Kanta, 232 p. EDN: LJKKFA (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Y. M. 2020, Kaliningradskiye al’ternativy: 25 let spustya [Kaliningrad alternatives: 25 years later], Kaliningrad : Izd-vo BFU im. I. Kanta, 315 p. EDN: JRSSAE (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M. (ed.). 2021, Vyzovy i perspektivy razvitiya Kaliningradskoi oblasti: geopolitika i geoekonomika [Challenges and prospects for the development of the Kaliningrad region: geopolitics and geoeconomics], Kaliningrad : Izd-vo BFU im. I. Kanta, 2021, 183 p. EDN: DUBKAW (in Russ.).Minkina, M. 2022, The relations of the Russian Federation with the West between 1991 and 2014, Przeglad Wschodnioeuropejski, vol. 13, № 2, p. 111—123, https://doi.org/10.31648/pw.8452Cottey, A. 2022, The West, Russia and European security: Still the long peace? British Journal of Politics and International Relations, vol. 24, № 2, p. 207—223, https://doi.org/10.1177/13691481211036381Ostrowski, W. 2022, The Twenty Years’ Crisis of European Energy Security: Central and Eastern Europe and the US, Geopolitics, vol. 27, № 3, p. 875—897, https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2020.1835863Baranovsky, V. G., Buzhinsky, E. P., Zagorsky, A. V., Nikitin, A. I., Oznobishchev, S. K. 2022, Avoiding nuclear war. Problems of escalation/de-escalation of armed conflicts when approaching the “nuclear threshold”, Polis. Political Studies, № 6, p. 114—134, https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2022.06.09Bański, J. 2022, The Issues of Changing Geopolitical Challenges—The Case of Poland. In: Rocha, Á., Fajardo-Toro, C. H., Rodríguez, J. M. R. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security . Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, vol. 255, p. 373—382, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4884-7_31Zięba, R. 2023, EU and NATO Eastern Policy. In: Zięba, R. (eds.), Politics and Security of Central and Eastern Europe. Contributions to Political Science, p. 119—136, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16419-4_6Jonsson, M., Norberg, J. 2022, Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Military Scenarios and Outcomes, Survival, vol. 64, № 6, p. 91—122, https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2150429Prohorovs, A. 2022, Russia’s War in Ukraine: Consequences for European Countries’ Businesses and Economies, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, vol. 15, № 7, art. № 295, https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15070295Girinsky, A. А. 2023, On “Conservative Balance” and “Traditional Values”, Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 21, № 3, p. 24—37, https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-3-24-37Moiseev, D. S., Kharin, A. N., Sigachev, M. I., Arteev, S. P. 2023, Conservative Values as a Bridge between Russia and the West, Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 21, № 3, p. 38—60, https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-3-38-60Allin, D. H., Jones, E. 2022, Sleepwalking to Solidarity? Russia, Ukraine and the European Dream, Survival, vol. 64, № 3, p. 213—222, https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2078059Bordachev, T. 2023, Rossiya: vopros o samotsennosti [Russia: the question of self-worth], Russia in Global Affairs, URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/vopros-o-samoczennosti/ (accessed 19.10.2023).Luk’yanov. F. 2023, Rossiya kak strana zdravogo smysla — vot eto bylo by zdorovo [Russia as a country of common sense — that would be great], Russia in Global Affairs, URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/strana-zdravogo-smysla/ (accessed 19.10.2023).Baklanov, P. Ya., Druzhinin, A. G., Moshkov, A. V. 2021, The Round table “Eurasian vectors of contemporary economic activity of Russia: Pacific Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Projection, Pacific Geography Journal, № 3 (7), p. 75—77. EDN: UKHNSADruzhinin, A. G. 2021, Eurasianism of L. N. Gumilyov: the main ideas and the potential of their modern application, Geopolitics and Ecogeodynamics of regions, vol. 7, № 4, p. 5—15. EDN: IAWMMADruzhinin, A. G. 2022, Evraziiskie idei L. N. Gumileva i ikh znachenie dlya Rossii v XXI veke [Eurasian ideas L. N. Gumilyov and their significance for Russia in the 21st century], In: Mikheeva, N. M., Kaledin, N. V. (eds.), Regional’naya politika, politicheskaya geografiya i geopolitika: istoriya i sovremennost’ [Regional politics, political geography and geopolitics: history and modernity], Sankt-Peterburg, p. 40—47.Vorozheina, Y. A., Klemeshev, A. P., Komleva, N. A., Druzhinin, A. G., Belozerov, V. K., Fedorov, G. M., Voloshenko, K. Yu. 2023, Geopolitical security of Russia: remarks on the problem statement, Baltic region, vol. 15, № 1, p. 153—169, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2023-1-9Fedorov, G. M. 2022, The economy of Russian Baltic regions: development level and dynamics, structure and international trade partners, Baltic region, vol. 14, № 4, p. 20—38, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2022-4-2Blumenau, B. 2022, Breaking with convention? Zeitenwende and the traditional pillars of German foreign policy, International Affairs, vol. 98, № 6, p. 1895—1913, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac166Stent, A. 2022, Germany and Russia: Farewell to Ostpolitik? Survival, vol. 64, № 5, p. 27— 38, https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2126194Kamp, K.-H. 2023, The Zeitenwende at Work: Germany’s National Security Strategy, Survival, vol. 65, № 3, p. 73—80, https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218698Zverev, Yu. M. 2023, Voenno-politicheskaya i voennaya bezopasnost’ Kaliningradskoi oblasti: informatsionno-analiticheskii doklad. Kaliningrad : Izdatel’stvo BFU im. I. Kanta, 75 p. EDN: MWTKXGZverev, Yu. M., Mezhevich, N. M. 2022, The Republic of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia as a sub-regional security complex, vol. 14, № 3, p. 64—82, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2022-3-4Вступление Финляндии и Швеции в НАТО: геополитические последствия для позиционирования России в Балтийском регионеP. Ye.Smirnovhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4757-8099The article examines Sweden’s and Finland’s motives for ending their long-time non-aligned policies and joining NATO after Russia had launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. The two countries’ decision is shown to be in the interest of the United States, which has always sought to fill the geopolitical vacuum reigning after the collapse of the opposing Soviet bloc and the Soviet Union itself. Finland and Sweden were the missing links for Washington and NATO in the Baltic region and Northern Europe as a whole. The study analyses the major consequences of these geopolitical changes for Russia in the Baltic region. These include the increasing disparity in armed forces with NATO, the substantial expansion of the border with the Alliance, the acquisition of new territorial and infrastructural capabilities by NATO to deploy reinforcements and military equipment from member countries to the region, the potential stationing of nuclear weapons on the territories of new member countries, the risk of blockading the Kaliningrad region, as well as the Gulf of Finland, and the Danish straits for Russian vessels. It is stressed that in the current circumstances, Russia needs to consider multiple scenarios in the Baltic region. On the one hand, it must safeguard its interests with minimal damage. On the other hand, it is crucial to steer clear of uncontrolled escalation of tensions with NATO, as it entails the risk of a military clash.06162026426110.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-3https://balticregion.kantiana.ru/baltic_region/5450/45421/Dahl, A. S. 2014, NORDEFCO and NATO: “Smart Defence” in the North? Research Paper. Research Division — NATO Defence College, Rome, № 101, May, p. 1—12.Smirnov, P. E. 2020, The evolution of US political priorities in the Baltic sea region in the 2010s, Baltic region, vol. 12, № 3, p. 4—25, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2020-3-1The Effects of Finland’s Possible NATO Membership, An Assessment. Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, 2016, April, 64 p.Gromyko, A. A., Plevako, N. S. 2016, On the Sweden’s and Finland’s optional membership in NATO, Sovremennaya Evropa, № 2, p. 13—16, http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope220161316 (in Russ.).Voronov, K. 2018, Nordic neutralism in the XXI century: Historical Finale or a New Transformation? Sovremennaya Evropa, № 1, p. 80—89, http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope120188089 (in Russ.).Timofeev, I. 2016, Russia and NATO in the Baltic, In: Andžāns, M., Bruģe, I. (eds.), The Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered, Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Riga, p. 56—65.Smirnov, P. 2022, Escalation of the Ukrainian Crisis and Formulating a New Strategic Concept of NATO, USA & Canada: Economics — Politics — Culture, № 10, p. 5—18, https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686673022100017 (in Russ.).Trukhachev, V. 2023, Russia — Sweden: a Deadlock in Relations? 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О. 2017, Analysis of Russian scientific periodicals or how to choose a journal for publication, Information and Innovations, S, p. 207—214. EDN: ZTIAFRMikhaylova, A. A. 2018, Innovation security of region: scientific construct or political necessity?, Innovation, № 1 (231), p. 79—86. EDN: YQKNNRZukauskaite, E., Trippl, M., Plechero, M. 2017, Institutional thickness revisited, Economic geography, vol. 93, № 4, p. 325—345, https://doi.org/10.1080/00130095.2017.1331703Mikhaylov, A. S. 2017, Boundaries of territorial communities, Vestnik of Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. Series: Natural and Medical Sciences, № 1, p. 5—20. EDN: YFMFUXFrenken, K., Van Oort, F., Verburg, T. 2007, Related variety, unrelated variety and regional economic growth, Regional studies, vol. 41, № 5, p. 685—697, https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400601120296Enkel, E., Gassmann, O., Chesbrough, H. 2009, Open R&D and open innovation: exploring the phenomenon, R&D Management, vol. 39, № 4, p. 311—316, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9310.2009.00570.xMiroliubova, T. V., Voronchikhina, E. N. 2021, Spatial non-homogeneity of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on social economic development of Russian regions, Vestnik Permskogo universiteta. Seria Ekonomika = Perm University Herald. Economy, № 16 (3), p. 238—254, https://doi.org/10.17072/1994-9960-2021-3-238-254Fedorov, G. M. 2013, Cross-border cooperation in the Baltic region and the development of the Russian exclave. In: Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M., Korneevets, V. S. (eds.), 2013, Rossiya na Baltike: 1990—2012 gody: monografiya [Russia in the Baltic: 1990—2012: monograph], Kaliningrad, 252 p. EDN: SWPSQZNair, A., Guldiken, O., Fainshmidt, S., Pezeshkan, A. 2015, Innovation in India: A review of past research and future directions, Asia Pacific Journal of Management, vol. 32, p. 925—958, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10490-015-9442-zГраница как барьер и стимул структурной трансформации экономики Калининградского эксклаваV. A.Kolosovhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2817-9463A. B.Sebentsovhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9665-5666This paper aims to study how geopolitical shifts affect regional economies and their structures. Border functions and regimes act as tools for the economy and society to adapt to the redistribution of political influence, movements of people, goods, capital and information between integration associations, individual countries and their cores. A changed environment may slow down the development of some industries (and even cause them to decline) and give a boost to others, with these two processes constituting economic restructuring. In the exclave of Kaliningrad, heavily dependent on international trade and transit trade with mainland Russia, geopolitical changes have naturally had an exceptionally strong effect. The relationship between border functions and economic restructuring was investigated over four periods. The study utilised data from Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service, departmental statistics and findings from expert interviews conducted by the authors. The extent and direction of changes are assessed by examining the ratios between major economic sectors, the structure of foreign trade relations, and the volume and sectoral distribution of investments. Four main ways are identified in which the sharp increase in the barrier nature of the borders between the Kaliningrad region and neighbouring countries since 2014 and especially February 2022 has influenced the region’s economy. The significance and effectiveness of the agro-industrial complex have risen, with an increased focus on domestic tourism, and the adoption of advanced public administration practices in collaboration with businesses. This includes implementing mechanisms such as Free Economic Zones and industrial parks, along with a shift towards proactive measures to adapt to the changing environment.0616202610412310.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-6https://balticregion.kantiana.ru/baltic_region/5452/45424/Kolosov, V. A., Zotova, M. V. 2022, Fragmentation of political space and dynamics of the modern system of borders, Political Science (RU), № 22, р. 67—89, https://doi.org/10.31249/poln/2022.04.03Kolosov, V. A. 2022, Border studies in the contemporary world: progress of theory and main directions, Regional Studies, № 3, p. 23—36, https://doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2022-3-2Vinokurov, E. 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B. 2005, For Spaсе. Los Angeles etc.: Sage Publications. 232 p.Nureev, R. M. 2010, Rossiya posle krizisa — effekt kolei [Russia after the crisis — the track effect], Journal of Institutional Studies, № 2, р. 7—26.North, D. C. 1990, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 152 p., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678Kuznetsova, A. L., Zverev, Yu. M. 2019, The ‘path dependence effect’ and its application for regional studies (case of Kaliningrad oblast), Regional Studies, № 2, p. 15— 24, https://doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2019-2-2Gumenyuk, L. G. 2022, Functional-time variability of the boundary (case of Kaliningrad oblast borders), Regional Studies, № 3, p. 90—99, https://doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2022-3-8Gimbitsky, K. K., Kuznetsova, A. A. Fedorov, G. G. 2014, The development of Kaliningrad regional economy: a new stage of restructuring, Baltic region, № 1, p. 56— 71, https://doi.org/10.5922/2074-9848-2014-1-4Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M., Korneevets, V. S. 2013, Rossiya na Baltike: 1990—2012 gody: monografiya [Russia in the Baltic: 1990—2012 : monograph], Kaliningrad, 252 p. EDN: SWPSQZMikheeva, N. N. 2022, ‘New’ regional proportions: results of calculating gross regional product], Studies on Russian Economic Development, vol. 33, № 3, p. 293—300, https://doi.org/10.1134/s1075700722030108Kuznetsova, O. V. 2023, New patterns of modern socio-economic development of Russian regions, Regional Studies, № 1, p. 19—30, https://doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2023-1-2Sebentsov, A. A., Zotova, M. M. 2018, The Kaliningrad region: challenges of the exclave position and the ways to offset them, Baltic region, vol. 10, № 1, p. 89—106, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2018-1-6Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M., Korneevets, V. S. 1996, Rossiiskii eksklav na Baltike: Kaliningradskaya oblast’ v baltiiskom ekonomicheskom prostranstve [Russian exclave in the Baltic: Kaliningrad region in the Baltic Economic Space], Kaliningrad : Kaliningr. un-t. EDN: XVWGKRFedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M. 2002, Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe i geopoliticheskoe razvitie Kaliningradskoi oblasti [Socio-economic and geopolitical development of the Kaliningrad region], Kaliningrad : KSU Publishing House, 308 p.Fedorov, G. M., Tarasov, I. N. (eds.). 2020, Kaliningradskaya oblast’ v novykh koordinatakh baltiiskoi geopolitiki [Kaliningrad region in the new coordinates of Baltic geopolitics], Kaliningrad : Publishing House of the I. Kant BFU, 300 p. EDN: CIPDAIKlemeshev, A. P. 2005, Exclave as a factor of Kaliningrad region development, Vestnik of Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. Series: Humanities and Social sciences, № 3, p. 34—41. EDN: HVRIDNRozhkov-Yuryevsky, Yu. D., 2013. The historical and geographical evolution of the enclavity of the Kaliningrad region, Baltic region, № 2, p. 76—84, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2012-2-8.Fedorov, G. M. 2018, Assessment of changes in the gross regional product of the exclave Russian region in the Baltic (1995—2016), Vestnik of Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. Series: Humanities and Social sciences, № 4, p. 32—42. EDN: YRIRDNSebentsov, A., Zotova, M. 2017, Kaliningrad as a Tourism Enclave/exclave? In: Hall, D. (eds.), Tourism and Geopolitics: Issues and Concepts from Central and Eastern Europe, Boston: CABI, р. 191—204, https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780647616.0191Gumenyuk, I. S. 2017, The intensity of population movements through the Russian—Polish border after the suspension of the local border traffic mechanism: 2016 outcomes, Vestnik of Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. Series: Natural and Medical Sciences, № 2, p. 15—23. EDN: YPRVHZGumenyuk, I., Kuznetsova, T., Osmolovskaya, L. 2016, Local border traffic as an efficient tool for developing cross-border cooperation, Baltic region, vol. 8, № 1, p. 76— 82, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2016-1-6Sagan, I., Studzińska, D., Nowicka, K., Kolosov, V., Zotova, M., Sebentsov, A. The local border traffic zone experiment as an instrument of cross-border integration: the case of Polish—Russian borderland, Geographia Polonica, 2018, vol. 91, № 1, p. 95—112, https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0102Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M. 2020, Kaliningradskie al’ternativy: 25 let spustya [Kaliningrad alternatives: 25 years later], Kaliningrad : Publishing House of the I. Kant BFU, 2020, 315 p. EDN: JRSSAEAtaev, Z. A. 2018, Isolated energy system of the Kaliningrad region, Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya, № 1, p. 101—110, https://doi.org/10.7868/S2587556618010095Nefedova, T. G. 2022, Geo-economic changes in agro-complex of Russia under the new geopolitical realities, Regional studies, № 2 (76), p. 4—15, https://doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2022-2-1Voloshenko, K. Yu., Morachevskaya, K. A., Novikova, A. A., Lyzhina, E. A., Kalinovsky, L. V. 2022, Transformation of food self-sufficiency of Kaliningrad oblast in the face of external challenges, Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Earth Sciences, vol. 67, № 3, p. 409—430, https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu07.2022.302Alov, I. N., Pilyasov, A. N. 2023, The spread of the COVID-19 infection in Russia’s Baltic macro-region: internal differences, Baltic region, vol. 15, № 1, p. 96—119, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2023-1-6Zemlyanskii, D. Yu., Chuzhen’kova, V. A. 2023, Production dependence on imports in the Russian economy: regional projection, Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Geographical series, № 5, p. 651—665.Studzińska, D., Dunaj, J. 2023, Kaliningrad as an isolated zone: the impact of the war in Ukraine on the daily life of the residents of the Kaliningrad region. An introduction to the discussion, Journal of Baltic Studies, vol. 54, № 2, p. 395—407, https://doi.org/10.1080/01629778.2023.2197605Развитие обрабатывающей промышленности Калининградской области: этапы, влияние рестрикций, приоритетыL. G.Gumenyukhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6186-350XThe Kaliningrad region is a socio-economically developed area with a steadily increasing population. Its economy is predominantly influenced by manufacturing industries, whose growth is supported by the region’s strategic geographic position on the Baltic coast and the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) regime. However, the region’s exclave status, which makes it reliant on external factors, hinders its development. Any change in these external factors could necessitate a restructuring of manufacturing industries. The severing of former foreign economic and social ties, the discontinuation of cross-border cooperation due to the actions of unfriendly countries, and the imposition of eleven packages of unlawful anti-Russian sanctions have had a more pronounced impact on the regional economy compared to the country’s inland regions. Logistics between the region and the main part of the country have been significantly complicated. Manufacturing industries have faced disruptions in the supply of essential foreign-made semi-finished products. The exports of several regionally-produced goods have been restricted, and transit through the Baltic States has become more difficult. This article aims to assess the impact of these restrictions on the development of manufacturing industries in the region. Another goal is to provide a rationale for the restructuring of specialization and changes in the geography of external relations in these increasingly complex external circumstances. Recommendations based on the findings obtained will contribute to the region’s sustainable development, characterized by dynamic growth and proportional development.0616202612414110.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-7https://balticregion.kantiana.ru/baltic_region/5452/45425/Klemeshev, A. P., Zverev, Yu. M. 2006, Mezhdunarodnoye sotrudnichestvo rossiyskikh regionov i mesto v nem Kaliningradskoy oblasti [International cooperation of Russian regions and the place of the Kaliningrad region in it], Region sotrudnichestva, vol. 48, № 1, p. 5—16 (in Russ.).Korneevets, V. S. 2010, International, transnational and cross-border regions: features, peculiarities, hierarchy, Bulletin of the Baltic Federal University named after I. Kant, № 1, p. 27—34, EDN: LDEOOX (in Russ.).Modzelewski, W. 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E. (eds.), The Nebi Yearbook 1998. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58886-0_6Oldberg, I. 1998, Kaliningrad: Problems and prospects, In: Joenniemi, P., Prawitz, J. (ed.), Kaliningrad: The European amber region, Taylor and Francis, p. 1—31, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429447624-1Wellmann, C. 1996, Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave at the crossroads: The interrelation between economic development and security politics. Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 31, № 2, p. 161—183, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010836796031002002Khlopetskiy, A. P. 2000,Kaliningrad kak ‘zona svobody’: vzglyad iznutri, Kaliningrad : Kn. izd-vo, 2000. 213 p. (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M., Voloshenko, K. Yu., Zhdanov, V. P. 2023 Strategiya razvitiya i ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’ Kaliningradskoy oblasti, Kaliningrad : Izd-vo BFU im. I. Kanta. 72 p. EDN: YJLJWD (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M., Novikova, A. A. 2023, Restrukturizatsiya vneshnikh torgovykh svyazey Kaliningradskoy oblasti (2014—2022), Kaliningrad : Izd-vo BFU im. I. Kanta, 55 p. EDN: LSWHIS (in Russ.).Park, A. 2022, Lithuania and Russia’s Kaliningrad: Analysing the Most Recent ‘Crisis’ That Shook the EU, Australian Institute of International Affairs, URL: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/lithuania-and-russias-kaliningrad-analysing-the-most-recent-crisis-that-shook-the-eu/ (accessed 07.09.2023).Karčiauskas, J. 2022, Lithuania external relations briefing: Kaliningrad exclave: a weak spot of EU economic sanctions against Russia, Weekly Briefing, vol. 54, № 4 (LT), URL: https://china-cee.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/2022er09_Lithuania.pdf (accessed 30.08.2023).Cordes, M. J. 2022, Kaliningrad oblast closer to its ever-distant masters, Pulaski Policy Paper, № 17, URL: https://pulaski.pl/en/pulaski-policy-paper-kaliningrad-oblast-closer-to-its-ever-distant-masters/ (accessed 30.08.2023).DiRubbio, W. 2022, Countering Kaliningrad’s Threat to NATO, The RUSI Journal, vol. 167, № 6—7, p. 82—93, https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2023.2176917Fernandes, S., Viana, P. 2022, Kaliningrad and the Lithuanian ‘geopolitical code’, Sovremennaya Evropa, vol. 1, p. 73—85, https://doi.org/10.31857/S0201708322010065Studzińska, D., Dunaj, J. 2023, Kaliningrad as an isolated zone: the impact of the war in Ukraine on the daily life of the residents of the Kaliningrad region. An introduction to the discussion, Journal of Baltic Studies, vol. 54, № 2, p. 395—407, https://doi.org/10.1080/01629778.2023.2197605Razumovskii, V. M. (ed.). 2017, Rossiyskaya Baltika i Baltiyskiy region [Russian Baltic and Baltic region], SPb. : Izd-vo SPbGEU, 280 p. EDN: YPEOJQ (in Russ.).Ivchenko, V. V. 2003 Programmno-strategicheskoye razvitiye primorskogo regiona Rossii. Teoriya, metodologiya, praktika, Kaliningrad : Izd-vo Kaliningr. un-ta, 207 p. EDN: UGKXWX (in Russ.).Teplitskiy, V. A., Mnatsakanyan, A. G., Dolgaya, A. A., Shcherba, T. A. 2013 Otsenka sovremennogo sostoyaniya predprinimatel’stva kaliningradskogo rybokhozyaystvennogo kompleksa, Vestnik BFU im. I. Kanta, vol. 3, р. 57—64. EDN: PYBZUT (in Russ.).Mikhaylov, A. S., Mikhaylova, A. A. 2018, Kaliningradskaya oblast’: faktor transgranichnoy klasterizatsii v sotsial’no-ekonomicheskom razvitii, In: Druzhinin, A. G., Klemeshev, A. P., Fedorov, G. M. (eds.), Primorskiye zony Rossii na Baltike: faktory, osobennosti, perspektivy i strategii transgranichnoy klasterizatsii, M. : ‘INFRA-M’, р. 99— 127. EDN: YASJUT (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M., Zverev, Yu. M. 2020, Kaliningradskie al’ternativy: 25 let spustya [Kaliningrad alternatives: 25 years later], Kaliningrad : Izd-vo BFU im. I. Kanta, 2020, 315 p. EDN: JRSSAEVardomskiy, L. B. 2022 Special regime as a factor in the economic development of the Kaliningrad region in changing external conditions, Pacific Geography, № 1, p. 35—44, https://doi.org/10.35735/26870509_2022_9_3 (in Russ.).Fedorov, G. M. 2022, The economy of Russian Baltic regions: development level and dynamics, structure and international trade partners, Baltic region. vol. 14, № 4, p. 20—38, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2022-4-2Современная экономика Российской Балтики в муниципальном разрезеO. V.Kuznetsovahttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4341-0934This article analyses the differentiation of municipalities at the municipal and urban district levels in the Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions based on their economic development and the response of their economies to the crises of 2020 and 2022. Emphasis is placed on the possibilities of conducting such assessments by merging Rosstat statistics with publicly available accounting and tax reporting data from the Federal Tax Service. The contribution also assesses the role of small businesses in municipal economies and their effect on employment, income levels of the population, and business activities. It is shown that over the ten years from 2012 to 2021, municipalities in the Kaliningrad region became more homogeneous in terms of the level of taxable income for individuals and individual entrepreneurs. In contrast, in the Leningrad Region, the level of differentiation remained unchanged, albeit with diverse income trends across municipalities.The study highlights municipalities’ specialization as a factor influencing changes in local companies’ revenue, particularly in 2022. The research illustrates that small businesses have a significantly smaller impact on the official income of the population compared to their role in employment. Furthermore, there are no discernible patterns in how municipalities differentiate based on the contribution of small businesses, as this can vary depending on the local economic development level and the ratio of urban to rural population. In particular, the decline of small businesses is noticeable in regions with high incomes and abundant employment opportunities at large organizations. This trend is also observed in economically challenged peripheral areas characterized by low demand for the products and services provided by small businesses.0616202614216410.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-8https://balticregion.kantiana.ru/baltic_region/5453/45426/Kuznetsova, O. V. 2022, Development of municipal issues in the state spatial policy of Russia, Regional Research, № 2, p. 16—24, https://doi.org/10.5922/1994-5280-2022-2-2 (in Russ.).Kuznetsova, O. V., Babkin, R. 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E. 2018, Geodemography of the Saint Petersburg suburbs, Baltic region, vol. 10, № 3, p. 19—40, https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2018-3-2Zhitin, D. V. 2021, Social differentiation in the suburban area Saint Petersburg, In: Druzhinin, A. G., Sidorov, V. P. (eds.), The present and future of Russia in a changing world: sociogeographical analysis and forecast, Izhevsk : Publishing Center ‘Udmurt University’, p. 440—449. EDN: EHLLHK (in Russ.).Zhitin, D. V. 2022, Features of the development of territories of various functional types within the St. Petersburg urban agglomeration, In: Dirin, D. A., Druzhinin, A. G.(eds.), Trends in the spatial development of modern Russia and priorities of its regulation, Proceedings of the international scientific conference, p. 546—552. EDN: DQGNKO (in Russ.).Olifir, D. 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